Market Report · June 2026
Alameda and Contra Costa County housing data at the halfway point of 2026, what's changed, what hasn't, and what it means if you're thinking about buying or selling.
The headline for mid-year 2026 is one most East Bay buyers haven't heard in a while: you have options. Inventory is up, competition has cooled, and rates, while still elevated compared to the 2020-2021 era, have come a long way from their 8% peak in late 2023. That doesn't mean it's a buyer's paradise. Well-priced homes in desirable neighborhoods still move fast. But the frantic, waive-everything market of 2022 is not what you'll find today.
Here's a grounded read on where things stand, county by county.
Alameda County's median sits at $925,000, up 2.4% from a year ago. That's modest appreciation by Bay Area historical standards, and it's tracking exactly what you'd expect in a normalizing market: prices are holding, not popping.
The more telling number is days on market. Homes are taking 43 days to sell on average, up from 37 days a year ago. That six-day extension doesn't sound dramatic, but for a county that was regularly seeing offers in week one, it represents a real shift in leverage. Buyers have more time to do their diligence. Sellers who overprice are paying for it in carrying costs and eventual reductions.
Oakland, Fremont, and Hayward continue to attract first-time buyers for different reasons: Oakland for walkability and access, Fremont for schools and Silicon Valley proximity, Hayward for relative affordability. Each submarket behaves differently. A neighborhood-level read matters more than the county-wide median.
Contra Costa County's median single-family price is running around $775,000, up roughly 2.6% from last year. The $150,000 gap between the two counties persists. For buyers who can stomach the commute, it translates to more square footage, newer construction, and larger lots.
Days on market have crept up here too, from 40 to 48 days. Worth noting: this is a county average. Central Contra Costa, Walnut Creek, Lafayette, Pleasant Hill, the 24/680 corridor, continues to move faster. The eastern corridor (Antioch, Pittsburg, Brentwood) accounts for a good portion of the slower pace, as those sub-markets are more sensitive to rate movements and have seen the most inventory growth.
One flag worth noting if you're shopping in the hills: wildfire insurance remains a genuine variable in Lafayette, Orinda, Moraga, and hillside Walnut Creek and Martinez. Carrier availability tightened further in 2025. Quote insurance during your contingency window, not after you're in love with the house.
The 30-year fixed rate is hovering in the 6.47-6.75% range as of mid-June 2026, per Freddie Mac and current lender quotes. That's roughly 40 basis points lower than a year ago. It's not the 3% era, but it's also not the 8% ceiling buyers were staring at in late 2023. The trajectory has been slowly improving despite ongoing economic volatility.
For a first-time buyer at the Alameda County median ($925,000) with 10% down:
For Contra Costa County at $775,000 with 10% down:
These are estimates. Your rate depends on credit score, loan type, lender, and the specifics of the property. A local lender who understands Bay Area jumbo dynamics will serve you better than a national call center. Tin can introduce you to lenders worth talking to.
"Rates at 6.5% feel painful if you're anchored to 3%. But zoom out: the 30-year historical average is closer to 7.5%. This is not an abnormal rate environment. It's a return to normal after an unusual three-year window."
If you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for rates to fall dramatically, there's a real risk in that strategy. Prices in both counties are holding. When rates do drop (and eventually they will), demand will spike and competition will compress your negotiating room. The buyers doing well right now are the ones who found the right home at today's price, locked in a rate, and plan to refinance when the opportunity comes.
The more balanced market also means your contingencies matter again. Inspection, loan, appraisal: use them. Waiving everything to win isn't completely off the table in the most competitive neighborhoods, but it's no longer what buyers should expect across the board.
The days of under-pricing to spark a bidding war and then watching the number balloon are harder to count on. Buyers are more deliberate. Homes that are priced correctly and show well still move, in some cases still in under two weeks. Homes that are priced optimistically are sitting and requiring reductions. The difference between a clean sale and a long, discounted one comes down to starting price and presentation. Tin's approach: price to sell in week two, not to hope the market rescues your week-six price.
The figures in this report are drawn from publicly available market data including Redfin, Zillow, and Freddie Mac, as of mid-June 2026. Median prices are county-wide and will vary significantly by city, neighborhood, and property type. Days-on-market figures represent county averages; specific neighborhoods will differ. Mortgage rate estimates are illustrative. Get a quote from a licensed lender for your actual situation. This report is not investment advice.
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County medians tell you the direction, not the destination. A conversation about the specific street, school district, or price range you're targeting gives you a much more useful read.
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